When presented with a list of several Republicans, 39% of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters picked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their first choice to be the 2024 GOP nominee, while 37% selected former President Donald Trump, according to the Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
The results represent a statistical tie as they fall within the survey’s +/- 5.5% margin of sampling error for likely 2024 GOP primary voters.
DeSantis is the only person to poll anywhere near Trump — just 9% selected former Vice President Mike Pence as their top pick, and only 6% chose former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
New Hampshire has gone to the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential election cycles, so the eventual GOP nominee would have to snap a long Republican losing streak in order to make the state go red.
In hypothetical head-to-head presidential election matchups for the state, DeSantis performs slightly better against President Joe Biden than Trump does. In a Biden versus DeSantis matchup, Biden gets 46% and DeSantis gets 47%. But in a Biden versus Trump contest, Biden gets 50% while Trump gets 43%.
None of the three men enjoy high favorability ratings statewide. While 59% hold an unfavorable view of Trump, just 33% have a favorable view of him. And while 56% look unfavorably upon Biden, just 26% have a favorable view of him. DeSantis fares better, with 45% viewing him unfavorably versus 36% who view him as favorably.
Trump has said that he thinks he would beat DeSantis in a 2024 GOP primary battle. According to the New Yorker, Trump said that he is “very close to making a decision” regarding whether to mount another presidential run. “I don’t know if Ron is running, and I don’t ask him,” Trump noted. “It’s his prerogative. I think I would win.”